AI Mega-Caps in Fed Week: Can the Rally Keep Running?
Subjective one-week price scenarios for NVDA, MSFT, AAPL & GOOGL into December 14, 2025
Executive Summary
NVDA – Nvidia
Current price: ≈ $182.41
Bear (p10): $160.50 (≈ –12%)
Base (p50): $189.70 (≈ +4%)
Bull (p90): $215.25 (≈ +18%)
Base-case view: Slightly up. AI-chip demand and blowout earnings keep sentiment positive, but valuations and Fed volatility cap the upside near term.
MSFT – Microsoft
Current price: ≈ $483.16
Bear (p10): $454.17 (≈ –6%)
Base (p50): $497.65 (≈ +3%)
Bull (p90): $531.48 (≈ +10%)
Base-case view: Slightly up. Cloud + AI fundamentals are strong, but near-term noise around AI monetization and the Fed can limit gains.
AAPL – Apple
Current price: ≈ $278.78
Bear (p10): $259.27 (≈ –7%)
Base (p50): $284.36 (≈ +2%)
Bull (p90): $303.87 (≈ +9%)
Base-case view: Slightly up. Strong China share and high-margin Services support the stock, but antitrust risk and phone-cycle concerns are overhangs.
GOOGL – Alphabet (Class A)
Current price: ≈ $321.27
Bear (p10): $295.57 (≈ –8%)
Base (p50): $334.12 (≈ +4%)
Bull (p90): $363.04 (≈ +13%)
Base-case view: Up. Gemini 3 momentum and strong ad + cloud numbers support an AI-leadership narrative, albeit from stretched levels.
In short: In a week dominated by the Fed decision, my base case is for modest upside across all four AI mega-caps, with material downside tails if the Fed disappoints or if AI valuations come under renewed pressure.
Bellow we share the rationale, key events to watch and investment strategies for each scenario.
