AI Mega-Caps on a Knife Edge

Forecast for NVDA, MSFT, AAPL & GOOGL for 30 November 2025

Executive Summary

Forecast horizon: from Monday, 24 November 2025 to the end of the trading week (close on Friday, 28 November 2025 – referred to here as “end of week 30 Nov”).

Current prices (as of 22 November 2025 close)

• NVDA: $178.88

• MSFT: $472.12

• AAPL: $271.49

• GOOGL: $299.66

Each stock is expressed in three 1-week scenarios, interpreted as approximate quantiles:

• Bear ≈ 10th percentile (q0.1)

• Base ≈ 50th percentile (q0.5, “most likely”)

• Bull ≈ 90th percentile (q0.9)

All prices are my estimates for the end of the week, not guarantees.

NVDA – Nvidia

• Bear (q0.1): $152 (≈ −15%)

• Base (q0.5): $173.5 (≈ −3%)

• Bull (q0.9): $200 (≈ +12%)

View: After blowout earnings and a huge AI run, I see a slight downside bias in the base case (mild pullback / consolidation), with very wide tails in both directions due to AI-bubble concerns and extreme positioning. (MoneyWeek)

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MSFT – Microsoft

• Bear (q0.1): $429.6 (≈ −9%)

• Base (q0.5): $486.3 (≈ +3%)

• Bull (q0.9): $519.3 (≈ +10%)

View: After an ~8% pullback this week, but still strong AI + cloud fundamentals and several analysts’ targets well above current price, I see a base case rebound of low single digits, with risk skewed slightly to the upside. (Quiver Quantitative)

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AAPL – Apple

• Bear (q0.1): $252.5 (≈ −7%)

• Base (q0.5): $282.4 (≈ +4%)

• Bull (q0.9): $301.4 (≈ +11%)

View: Apple just delivered a solid FY 2025 with re-accelerating revenue and continues to outperform the Nasdaq even during tech volatility, but trades near 30× earnings. My base case is a modest grind higher, still acknowledging valuation-driven downside risk. (Apple)

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GOOGL – Alphabet

• Bear (q0.1): $269.7 (≈ −10%)

• Base (q0.5): $314.6 (≈ +5%)

• Bull (q0.9): $341.6 (≈ +14%)

View: Alphabet is at/near record highs after a new Berkshire stake and the launch of Gemini 3, with YTD gains near 50%. I still tilt the base case slightly upward thanks to AI and valuation that’s not as stretched as peers, but acknowledge meaningful downside if sentiment on AI spending turns. (Reuters)

Bellow we share the rationale, key events to watch and investment strategies for each scenario.