AI Titans at a Crossroads

One-Week Price Scenarios for NVDA, MSFT, AAPL & GOOGL (Nov 17–23, 2025)

Executive Summary

Current prices (last close, mid-Nov 2025)

• NVDA: $190.17

• MSFT: $510.18

• AAPL: $272.41

• GOOGL: $276.41

Interpretation of quantiles

• 10% quantile (“Bear”): ~10% chance the price finishes below this level.

• 50% quantile (“Base”): median scenario — directionally what I think is more likely than not.

• 90% quantile (“Bull”): ~10% chance the price finishes above this level.

End-of-Week Price Scenarios (Nov 21, 2025 close, in USD)

• Nvidia (NVDA) – earnings week, very high event risk

  • Bear (q0.1): $161.64 (≈ -15%)

  • Base (q0.5): $199.68 (≈ +5%)

  • Bull (q0.9): $224.40 (≈ +18%)

• Microsoft (MSFT) – steady AI infra ramp

  • Bear (q0.1): $469.37 (≈ -8%)

  • Base (q0.5): $520.38 (≈ +2%)

  • Bull (q0.9): $561.20 (≈ +10%)

• Apple (AAPL) – post-earnings, rich but more defensive mega-cap

  • Bear (q0.1): $256.07 (≈ -6%)

  • Base (q0.5): $275.13 (≈ +1%)

  • Bull (q0.9): $294.20 (≈ +8%)

• Alphabet (GOOGL) – Buffett tailwind, AI re-rating

  • Bear (q0.1): $257.06 (≈ -7%)

  • Base (q0.5): $284.70 (≈ +3%)

  • Bull (q0.9): $306.82 (≈ +11%)

Base-case direction: I’m leaning modestly bullish on all four into this week (NVDA +5%, MSFT +2%, AAPL +1%, GOOGL +3%), but with asymmetric downside tails, especially for NVDA due to earnings.

Bellow we share the rationale, key events to watch and investment strategies for each scenario.