AI Titans Weekly Outlook: NVDA, MSFT, AAPL & GOOGL into Dec 7, 2025
Quantile-based scenarios for the Magnificent 7’s AI core over the coming week
Executive Summary
Below I anchor on the Nov 29, 2025 close (latest available quote) and give three 1-week scenarios for each stock:
10% quantile (Bear) ≈ “bad but not catastrophic week”
50% quantile (Base) ≈ “most likely range / median outcome”
90% quantile (Bull) ≈ “strong upside week”
All numbers are approximate and rounded.
Nvidia (NVDA)
Current price: $177.00
Bear (q0.1): $164 (about −7.3%)
Base (q0.5): $182 (about +3.0%)
Bull (q0.9): $200 (about +13.3%)
Base case: slightly up after digesting huge earnings and ongoing AI optimism, but with meaningful downside risk from valuation and AI-spend fatigue.
Microsoft (MSFT)
Current price: $492.01
Bear (q0.1): $473 (about −3.8%)
Base (q0.5): $502 (about +2.0%)
Bull (q0.9): $530 (about +7.8%)
Base case: modest grind higher, powered by Azure/Copilot strength, capped by concerns over record AI capex. (heygotrade.com)
Apple (AAPL)
Current price: $278.85
Bear (q0.1): $272 (about −2.6%)
Base (q0.5): $286 (about +2.5%)
Bull (q0.9): $300 (about +7.6%)
Base case: up week, driven by a rebound in iPhone 17 demand in China and strong services narrative, with risk from China competition and lofty multiples. (TradingView)
Alphabet (GOOGL)
Current price: $320.18
Bear (q0.1): $311 (about −2.8%)
Base (q0.5): $330 (about +3.0%)
Bull (q0.9): $348 (about +8.8%)
Base case: up week, with Alphabet positioned as the current AI market darling after a 70%+ YTD run and Gemini/cloud momentum, but exposed to “AI bubble” and regulatory concerns. (Reuters)
In one sentence: I expect a slightly bullish week overall for these four AI leaders, with NVDA remaining the highest-beta name (widest range) and MSFT/AAPL/GOOGL showing narrower—but still meaningful—upside and downside bands.
Bellow we share the rationale, key events to watch and investment strategies for each scenario.
