Big Tech Week-End Target Prices (Dec 21, 2025): AI Whiplash Meets a Dovish Fed

NVDA • MSFT • AAPL • GOOGL — quantile forecasts (0.1 / 0.5 / 0.9) for the week ending 2025-12-21

Executive Summary

Time window: 2025-12-15 to 2025-12-21 (week-ending Sunday; last market close is expected Friday, Dec 19, 2025).
Macro backdrop: The Fed cut rates by 25 bps to a 3.50%–3.75% target range on Dec 10, while markets are juggling a data-heavy week after a tech-led wobble tied to inflation + AI capex worries. (Federal Reserve)

NVIDIA (NVDA)

Current price (Dec 15): $175.02
Bear (q0.1): $159.27 (-9.0%)
Base (q0.5): $177.65 (+1.5%)
Bull (q0.9): $192.52 (+10.0%)
Quick take: NVDA’s distribution is widest because it’s ground-zero for the “AI spend” narrative—capex anxiety cuts both ways into year-end. (Reuters)

Microsoft (MSFT)

Current price (Dec 15): $478.53
Bear (q0.1): $457.00 (-4.5%)
Base (q0.5): $483.32 (+1.0%)
Bull (q0.9): $507.24 (+6.0%)
Quick take: Long-term AI positioning is strong, but near-term the market is sensitive to “are customers paying for AI?” headlines. (Reuters)

Apple (AAPL)

Current price (Dec 15): $278.28
Bear (q0.1): $262.97 (-5.5%)
Base (q0.5): $276.05 (-0.8%)
Bull (q0.9): $289.41 (+4.0%)
Quick take: Strong holiday-quarter tone, but tariffs + supply constraints keep the near-term risk skew slightly negative after a big run. (Reuters)

Alphabet (GOOGL)

Current price (Dec 15): $309.29
Bear (q0.1): $293.83 (-5.0%)
Base (q0.5): $310.84 (+0.5%)
Bull (q0.9): $326.30 (+5.5%)
Quick take: Fundamentals can still grind higher, but regulatory/antitrust noise is an ever-present volatility source. (Reuters)

Bellow we share the rationale, key events to watch and investment strategies for each scenario.