Crypto Crash or Tactical Bottom?
Quantile Scenarios for BTC, ETH & SOL into November 30, 2025
Executive Summary (Week Ending 2025-11-30)
All data and prices as of 2025-11-23.
Bitcoin (BTC) – currently ≈ $86.8K
Bear / 10% quantile (q0.1): $75K (-13.6%)
Base / 50% quantile (q0.5): $90K (+3.7%)
Bull / 90% quantile (q0.9): $103K (+18.7%)
Base view: Slight rebound/sideways-up after an oversold crash, but still inside a broader corrective phase.
Ethereum (ETH) – currently ≈ $2,797
Bear (q0.1): $2,300 (-17.8%)
Base (q0.5): $2,700 (-3.5%)
Bull (q0.9): $3,200 (+14.4%)
Base view: Mild further downside / underperformance vs BTC, with key supports being probed and ETF flows softer than hoped.
Solana (SOL) – currently ≈ $130.7
Bear (q0.1): $105 (-19.6%)
Base (q0.5): $135 (+3.3%)
Bull (q0.9): $175 (+33.9%)
Base view: Sideways-to-slightly-up, with high volatility. ETF inflows and “SOL narrative” support the upside, but a looming “death cross” keeps downside risk very real.
Over the past six weeks, crypto has suffered a violent deleveraging: Bitcoin fell from ~$125–126K to the low $80Ks, erasing around $1T in total crypto market value as leverage was flushed out and ETF money exited.(Investopedia)
However, sentiment now sits in extreme fear territory, and some on-chain/ETF indicators hint at a tactical bottom forming in BTC — even as ETH and SOL remain technically fragile.(CoinDesk)
Bellow we share the rationale, key events to watch and investment strategies for each scenario.
