Crypto Fed-Week Crossroads: BTC, ETH & SOL Scenarios into Dec 7

Subtle rebound or one more flush before the Fed? A quantile-based look at the week ahead.

Executive Summary

Prices in USD, as of 2025-11-30.

Bitcoin (BTC) – current ≈ $91,388

• Bear (10% quantile): $74,938 (≈ -18%)

• Base (50% quantile): $96,871 (≈ +6%)

• Bull (90% quantile): $109,666 (≈ +20%)

Ethereum (ETH) – current ≈ $3,031

• Bear (10% quantile): $2,546 (≈ -16%)

• Base (50% quantile): $3,244 (≈ +7%)

• Bull (90% quantile): $3,698 (≈ +22%)

Solana (SOL) – current ≈ $138.09 (Binance-pegged SOL)

• Bear (10% quantile): $103.57 (≈ -25%)

• Base (50% quantile): $150.52 (≈ +9%)

• Bull (90% quantile): $179.52 (≈ +30%)

Big picture:

• Base case: mildly bullish for all three into Dec 7 – markets lean risk-on ahead of a highly anticipated Fed meeting (Dec 9–10) and renewed ETF inflows, especially into ETH and SOL, but without a full-on melt-up. (Federal Reserve)

• Downside tail: another wave of de-risking if the market suddenly prices in a more hawkish Fed or if leverage in perps needs to be flushed again. (Bitget)

Bellow we share the rationale, key events to watch and investment strategies for each scenario.