Crypto Under Pressure: One-Week Scenarios for BTC, ETH & SOL

Quantile-based price forecasts for November 17–23, 2025 in a fear-driven market

Executive Summary

As of November 16, 2025, the crypto market is in a sharp correction: Bitcoin has erased its year-to-date gains and trades around $93.5k after falling more than 25% from its October all-time high above $126k.(Wall Street Journal) Ethereum and Solana are also under pressure, with ETH slipping below key supports and SOL at multi-month lows amid ETF inflow fatigue and FTX/Alameda supply overhang.(CoinDesk)

Below are probabilistic scenarios for prices at the end of the week (around 2025-11-23), expressed as quantiles of a distribution of possible outcomes:

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Current price: ≈ $93,500

• Bear case (10th percentile): $72,700 (-22%)

• Base case (50th percentile / median): $88,000 (-6%)

• Bull case (90th percentile): $106,700 (+14%)

Ethereum (ETH)

• Current price: ≈ $3,072

• Bear case (10th percentile): $2,430 (-21%)

• Base case (50th percentile / median): $2,980 (-3%)

• Bull case (90th percentile): $3,660 (+19%)

Solana (SOL)

• Current price: ≈ $136 (Binance-pegged SOL, close to spot SOL-USD)(Brave New Coin)

• Bear case (10th percentile): $91 (-33%)

• Base case (50th percentile / median): $126 (-8%)

• Bull case (90th percentile): $173 (+27%)

In plain language:
For this week, my statistical read is slight downward drift as the most likely outcome across BTC, ETH and SOL, with very wide, two-sided tails, especially for Solana. Macro risk-off sentiment and technical damage dominate in the short term, while medium-term structural stories (ETH’s upgrade, SOL’s ecosystem growth, BTC’s ETF/institutional narrative) still keep the upside tails alive.

Bellow we share the rationale, key events to watch and investment strategies for each scenario.